Let’s look at the perfect snake draft strategy for a 12-team, PPR, Flex10 league (three WRs and a flex). If you’re not playing that format, change your rules. Adding that extra player (and you can even add more) gives you maximum structural flexibility.
In fantasy drafts, structural advantages are paramount. Player picking is too ephemeral. You can’t sustain beating all your league at picking players consistently. There is no true skill level for the players. Value is more reliant on usage and scoring environment/teammates. Who stays healthy and gets hurt is also unknowable. Obviously, picking the right players beats all structural advantages. But assume you’ll be average, or maybe slightly better there, making drafting downhill instead of uphill that extra boost of win probability to secure a playoff spot and put you in the championship hunt. White Charcoal Pencil
We’ll give you players here in each round based on my rankings. For key players, I’ll excerpt the analysis that accompanies my ranking. (Note: They’re published on Sharpener and are a premium product.)
Your first structural snake-draft priority should be trying to land the top running back. That’s the most valuable thing in our game regardless of format or the number of starters. How many guys have a very good chance to finish as the actual RB1? Beyond Christian McCaffrey, the only value pick I see here among a handful of remaining candidates is Nick Chubb. Here’s what I wrote about Chubb in my rankings:
“If I don’t like anyone but CMC at the top of the draft, I may as well make one of the best runners in NFL history the No. 2 back. First back in history to average 5.0+ per carry in each of his first five seasons (min. 150 attempts). No one else has more than three. He’s still in his prime. No Kareem Hunt. Maybe the QB is still good. The OL is solid.”
If you don’t have confidence in anyone but McCaffrey really crushing the field in RB scoring, the alternative strategy is to load up on WR. I have Ja’Marr Chase behind Justin Jefferson due to Joe Burrow’s calf injury possibly extending into the season. My most controversial Top 10 WR ranking is Davante Adams at WR5, the 10th overall pick. Here’s what I wrote:
“Really getting downgraded by the market, which hates Jimmy (Garoppolo). I think that’s madness. I wish there was a backup better than Brian Hoyer in LV, but Adams was so good last year and how is Jimmy G. worse than Derek Carr? You can get Adams around pick 18. That’s just nuts.”
The structural advantage available to us all is loading up on WRs. I know it seems more shallow at the top of the WR queue and deeper at the bottom, but you never have to stop drafting WRs who I think are great values.
The second-tier WR who I like much more than the market and who is the perfect third-round pick is Amari Cooper (my WR12).
“I really want to make him a first-tier WR. Cooper is the complete package and has the kind of aDOT (average depth of target) we’re looking for — not too hot and not too cold. 12.1 is close enough to our target area of 9.0 to 12.0.”
I’m very comfortable waiting until after 60 picks for my first running back (or two). I want no more than one RB after the first five rounds. And none is fine. I can get two guys I like in the sixth round and seventh round in most drafts — Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco. Here’s what I wrote in my rankings.
“Sanders is likely to get 65% of RB touches for a Carolina offense that has a great line and maybe average QB play, even with a rookie. Has some receiving upside. In 2019, he had five catches of 30+ receiving yards in the first half of the season and the full-season record then was just seven.”
“(Pacheco’s) injuries are a big nothing burger for a running back once he recovers. No leg or knee issues (it’s hand/shoulder). He had five catches for 58 yards in the AFC Championship game so how can you argue he’ll be a zero in the passing game? The Chiefs were also very weird in having the vast majority of short TDs through the air; expect that to regress toward Pacheco scoring more gimmies.”
I really want to attack RBs in the middle rounds. That means I must structure my draft accordingly with most draft capital devoted to receivers (including possibly a tight end). There’s a back going 100 picks into drafts on average who I just love and who you should love, too. I wrote about Rashaad Penny:
“6.2 yards per carry the past two years. CONSIDER: Penny has eight career games of 14+ carries. In those games: 1,052 yards and 10 TDs. Averaging 7.5 yards per attempt. Averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game. No one in the NFL is close to Penny as a runner after Nick Chubb.”
Now that you have attacked wide receivers ferociously and grabbed a bevy of backs in the sweet spot where they typically greatly exceed expectations and cost, you should turn to your QB.
It’s great if you can beat most teams in your league at QB. You don’t need the No. 1 guy but should strive for a Top 5 option. On average since 2019, a Top 5 scoring QB has cost the No. 10 QB pick in fantasy drafts. Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers are my targets here. Lawrence runs enough to be the QB1 (five rushing TDs last year). Rodgers was QB2 and QB5 in his two MVP years and I predict we’ll see a season of that caliber in 2023.
If your league, like the vast majority, drafts two QBs per team and holds that many during the season, you have to draft a couple of passers, too. I would double tap, and the player I like more than the market is Anthony Richardson:
“Richardson could be a disaster or could be poor man’s Cam Newton as a rookie. He’s a much better thrower than Fields and Jackson, in form and release, and offers similar rushing upside. Don’t put any weight in whatever his preseason stats are. Rookie Cam was horrendous in the preseason and then exploded right out of the gate in fantasy. This team may need to throw a lot.”
What about tight end? Is it just Travis Kelce or bust? My TE2 is actually George Kittle once I crunched my numbers. He’s a real value where he’s going in NFFC drafts in August (60th overall). Here’s what I wrote:
“Since 2018, (Kittle’s) 17-game averages are 89-1202-7. How can I not make him the TE2? In the same period, Andrews is 84-1048-9. Close but there is outsized per-game production one year (2021). To put Andrews ahead of Kittle, you really have to buy into a transformation of Baltimore run-pass splits and I don’t buy that despite OC Todd Monken’s history.”
But if you don’t want to pay for a onesie tight end if you fail to secure Kelce, the math is on your side. Two tight ends in the Top 5 in end-of-season scoring historically come after the TE12 is picked in your draft. I don’t know who that player is but he’ll probably be a waiver add. Maybe it’s Jelani Woods or Greg Dulcich or Juwan Johnson — hybrid/WR types who could be running routes on passing downs. You’re not going to have to fight too many managers for a waiver-wire tight end, especially in FAAB leagues.
Filling out your RB room later, I like players like Samaje Perine, Zach Charbonnet and Jeff Wilson well over market. Don’t draft them over market though. Just circle those guys and take them just before their ADP, or maybe just after it.
Last year, some of you will remember, I loved the idea of drafting Jerick McKinnon. I could not shut up about it. I’m going to cash those chips and go home. Here’s what I wrote about McKinnon this year:
“Nine receiving TDs is insane. The last 10 seasons, RBs with 6+ receiving TDs have averaged 3.2 the next year from 6.8 the prior year. No one repeated. And McKinnon is 31. OVER/UNDER for McKinnon receiving TDs is four.”
To fill out your receiving corps, I like Courtland Sutton (actually more targets than everyone’s fantasy darling, Jerry Jeudy) well over market, and Skyy Moore and John Metchie.
“My favorite pocket pick. I am way over market on him. He has a ton of draft pedigree and has been forgotten as he was battling cancer, now cured, all of 2022. He’s WR72 in early August. UPSIDE: he leads the Texans in targets.”
My go-to last pick of the draft is either Alec Pierce or Jalin Hyatt. If I’m not taking a WR in the last round, my RB choice is Jordan Mason of the Niners. My Mason blurb:
“Speculative play as a late-round pocket pick basically counting on an early injury to one of the SF top-two RBs. Mason is a good runner. He averaged 6.5 yards per carry on his 45 totes and averaged an ABSURD 4.22 yards per attempt AFTER contact.”
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Cellophane Paper Michael Salfino writes about fantasy sports for The Athletic. His numbers-driven fantasy analysis began with a nationally syndicated newspaper column in 2004. He now covers a variety of sports for FiveThirtyEight and The Wall Street Journal, for whom he also writes about movies. Michael helped Cade Massey of the Wharton School of Business originate an NFL prediction model https://massey-peabody.com that understands context and chance and avoids the trap of overconfidence. He strives to do the same when projecting player performance. Follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelSalfino